Duterte, life and death defense war

According to Philippine media reports on March 11, Duterte was detained by police after returning from abroad to Manila International Airport that day. Earlier, the Philippine Presidential Palace confirmed that the Interpol Manila branch had received an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Duterte earlier stated that he was ready for possible arrest.

In recent months, the "power battle" between Duterte and the Marcos family has continued to escalate.

On February 13 local time, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte shouted the slogan of "protecting Sarah" at a rally led by the Democratic People's Forces Party. At this time, it has only been 8 days since the Philippine House of Representatives passed the impeachment case against Vice President Sarah Duterte.

The fuse of this "father-daughter defense battle" pointed to a political earthquake in the Philippine House of Representatives on February 5: 215 lawmakers signed a joint impeachment of Sarah, far exceeding the legal one-third threshold. It is intriguing that the first signator on the impeachment list is Sandro Marcos, son of President Ferdinand Marcos, and the finale is House Speaker Martin Romuardes, who is regarded as a core ally of the Marcos family.

The source of the impeachment case can be traced back to Sarah's "midnight collapse" incident on November 23, 2024. That night, Sarah started a live broadcast in the dark in the vice president's office, and she burst into tears and threatened the death of the whole country: "If I am killed, go and kill President Marcos, the First Lady and the Speaker!" This out-of-control declaration was immediately called the "Philippine version of Watergate Incident" by the media, completely tearing apart the fragile alliance that the two major families had maintained for three years.

According to the impeachment complaint, Sarah was charged with "unconstitutional, betrayal of public trust, corruption, and suspected of planning to assassinate the president, the first lady and the speaker of the House of Representatives." If convicted, Sarah will become the first vice president in Philippine history to be impeached and stepped down. Faced with the accusation, Sarah fought back hard: "This is a political pursuit of the Marcos family!"

On November 13, 2024, Duterte and his daughter were in Quezon City, Philippines. Picture/IC

The fragile "Good by Heaven"

In 2021, two special meetings led to a political alliance that shocked the world.

The first meeting took place on May 31, on Sarah's 43rd birthday, Senator Ime Marcos and his younger brother Ferdinand Marcos went to Davao City to celebrate Sarah's birthday, then mayor of the city. Although the Philippines was suffering from the new crown epidemic at that time, the three of them still took off their masks and had lunch together, making jokes from time to time.

The second meeting took place on October 23, when Sarah met with the Marcos siblings again in Cebu. The initiator of these two meetings was Ime Marcos, who was both Sarah's good friend and Marcos' sister. Some analysts said that it was these two key meetings that allowed Sarah and Marcos to reach "some kind of cooperation."

A few weeks after the meeting in Cebu, Sarah publicly announced that she would run side by side with Marcos with “unity” as the campaign platform. This statement immediately shocked the whole country. At that time, the most popular potential presidential candidate was actually Sarah, followed by Marcos. They belong to the two major political families in the Philippines. The Duterte family's base camp is in Mindanao in the southern Philippines, while the Marcos family dominates the northern province of Irogos.

People familiar with Sarah once revealed in an interview with the media: "Dutert didn't know Sarah's decision because she had always been eager to prove that she was independent of her father." Sarah herself later confirmed this statement. She said in an interview with the British media: "Before she decided not to run, I made a form listing the reasons for running and not running." She finally added that she did not even tell her father the specific reasons.

But in Duterte's view, Marcos is a weak leader and is not suitable to lead the Philippines. Former Duterte spokesman Harry Rock revealed that President Duterte once hoped his daughter could change her mind and run for the election. "The president believed from the very beginning that she (Sarah) was the most capable presidential candidate," Harry Rock said.

At a business conference held in Manila in 2018, then President Duterte publicly commented on his daughter Sarah, then mayor of Davao City, saying: "You all should be careful of my daughter, she is 'omnipotent', both physically and politically." He pretended to warn: "Where can you see the mayor beat the sheriff directly in front of everyone on a live TV broadcast? Be careful of that woman, she can drive away the speaker just by operating in the Davao area." After Duterte said, the audience laughed.

Duterte mentioned two things, one happened when Sarah was in his first tenure as mayor of Davao. At that time, the city encountered floods and many people were homeless. Sheriff Andres insisted on demolishing a slum in Soliman Village, Agdao District, which triggered protests from local people. Sarah punched the sheriff twice in the face, causing injuries to her left eye and face. The mayor beat the sheriff in the street and became headlines in major Philippine media the next day, and some media even described her as "heavy boxer mayor."

Another incident Duterte refers to is that during the House of Representatives reorganization in 2018, Sarah participated in the power battle, resulting in the expulsion of Davao's northern representative Pantaleon Alvarez, and Sarah's close ally and mentor, former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, became the Speaker of the House. This is how Sarah and Arroyo’s relationship was formed.

During the campaign, Sarah once again joined hands with Arroyo to form her own campaign team. "Running for vice president is a path that allows me to follow the call of my supporters and serve the country, and will also help me become a stronger national civil servant." Sarah explained her decision in a later interview.

However, Duterte's former spokesman Harry Rock revealed that although Marcos and Sarah claimed to be running for the "joint team", at Marcos' headquarters, allies in Duterte's camp were only allowed to enter the "Sarah floor".

There is little suspense. In the 2022 election, presidential candidate Marcos and his partner Sarah won the election of the president and vice president by an overwhelming advantage. When the results were announced, Ime Marcos, who directly promoted the cooperation between the two major families, once again stated that this was a "combination of heaven" in Philippine politics.

Family politics has played an important role in the Philippines in recent centuries. These family relations and interest chains are intricate, control local votes, have close ties with the central government, and even have private armed forces. Since 2001, the four Philippine presidents - Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Beninho Aquino III, Rodrigo Duterte, and Ferdinand Marcos, have without exception from several major political families in the Philippines. These families often continue to consolidate and strengthen their own power through alliances, marriages and other means, thereby maintaining the continuation of family power. But on the other hand, these families often cause bloody and violent political struggles due to the distribution of power and interests.

In fact, in this alliance called "the combination of heaven", risks were buried from the beginning. Just as the election was over, Duterte's camp asked Marcos to allocate half of the cabinet to allied allies, a request that the latter be shocked, according to a person close to Marcos. The first public sign of friction between the two sides was that Sarah was deprived of the opportunity to serve as Secretary of Defense and was appointed as the Education Minister with less power.

Rumors of disagreement soon spread. In response, Sarah issued a special statement in the early days, trying to calm the speculation from the outside world. “I expect those who wish to see the failure of the new administration will create conspiracy theories about my loyalty and the status of the Defense Minister to undermine the joint team.” She added that the “Joint Team” wants the Philippines to remain stable and build a government as harmonious as possible.

Anthony Lawrence Borja, a scholar at the University of Delrasa in the Philippines, analyzed to China Newsweek that Marcos and Sarah are two very different people, and the camp behind them also represents different positions. Ultimately, the foundation of this alliance is fragile.

“A big turn of 180 degrees”

The appearance of unity lasted for only one year, and the relationship between the two camps ushered in the first turning point. In May 2023, the House of Representatives accidentally removed former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo from his post as deputy speaker.

Sources said Arroyo should have been arranged to be the Speaker of the House before the campaign, as in 2018. However, after being elected president, Marcos quickly appointed his cousin Martin Romuardes to the position. The initiator of the removal of Arroyo was Martin Romuardes.

Arroyo is the daughter of former President Diosdado Macapagal and the second female president of the Philippines. In public, Arroyo never stings with his appreciation for Sarah. In 2019, she commented on Sarah Duterte as "a rising star in Philippine politics."

"Romuardes' behavior triggered everything," Duterte's lawyer, Salvador Panelo, said later. She revealed that after Arroyo was removed from office, "Sarah had been waiting for Marcos' statement, but he chose to ignore it at the time. The Presidential Palace did not give any explanation."

Some rumors say Arroyo tried to remove House Speaker Martin Romuardes. If Arroyo succeeds, Marcos' power will be weakened and may face impeachment. Therefore, the Marcos camp decided to take the lead. And the manipulator behind this behavior is Marcos himself.

The move angered Sarah, causing her to publicly attack Marcos' allies for the first time. She posted on social media that Romuardes was a "shameless monster" and condemned him for being "politically toxic." Sarah then resigned from the Christian Muslim Democratic Forces Party led by Speaker Romuyardes.

A few months later, the House of Representatives led by Romuyardes attacked Sarah himself directly, and the House reviewed the way Sarah handled confidential funds. Confidential funds are free-door funds used by government agencies to support their secret activities, and the House eventually canceled the confidential funds from the Vice President’s budget for the following year as Sarah failed to explain how she spent 125 million pesos (about $2.25 million) in 11 days in 2022.

The House of Representatives investigated Sarah's secret funds, and the relationship between the two camps deteriorated rapidly, and Duterte publicly criticized the House as a "rotten institution."

Then, the House of Representatives threw another bombshell. The House Judicial Committee and the Human Rights Commission unanimously voted to pass three resolutions urging the Philippine government to work with the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate the anti-drug war initiated by former President Duterte. Police data show that more than 6,200 people were killed during drug control operations during Duterte's administration, and police usually say they killed the suspect in self-defense. But human rights groups believe that the actual death toll is much higher than that.

At the beginning of his tenure, Marcos said he would not assist the International Criminal Court in investigating Duterte's anti-drug campaign. But starting from November 2023, Marcos revealed that he is reconsidering the International Criminal Court. This led some to believe that Marcos is about to use the International Criminal Court to arrest his ex. “They made a big 180-degree turn,” said Harry Rock, a former Duterte spokesman. “Their real goal is to send Duterte to The Hague.”

In Anthony Lawrence Borja's view, Marcos has been taking the approach of staying away from his predecessor Duterte after taking office. Internationally, he tried to seek more support from the United States; at home, he could cater to the support of more moderate classes, even liberals and opposition members.

Ronald Leamas, who was an adviser to President Beninho Aquino III, said Marcos was trying to "destroy the Duterte family." And if the Duterte family performs well in the 2025 midterm elections, they will also "revenge" the Marcos family.

"Encirclement and suppression of Davao Base Camp"

After entering 2024, the struggle between the two major families is becoming increasingly fierce. In January 2024, at a rally in Davao, Duterte bombarded Marcos as a "judge" during his speech. Duterte's son, Sebastian Duterte, mayor of Davao City, directly demanded that Marcos resign from the presidency, accused him of failing to effectively resolve the crime and criticized his foreign policy for "endangering the lives of innocent Filipinos."

"Marcos should think about the fate of the Romanov family and Benito Mussolini," he also threatened. "Think about what happened to your father in 1986, and you may rethink the direction you took." In 1986, then-President Marcos was overthrown and went into exile in Hawaii, USA, and died in a foreign land three years later.

At this time, Sarah and Marcos were still maintaining the seeming unity of the alliance and did not point the finger directly at Marcos. Sarah called her younger brother Sebastian’s remarks “out of siblings” and said she was “despicable from certain departments within the presidential circle.”

Marcos also responded that although Sarah's brother and father both criticized him strongly, there was no conflict between him and Sarah.

However, on May 23, 2024, the Marcos camp directly reached into Davao City, the base camp of the Duterte family. On this day, under the order of the Philippine National Police Commission, Davao City Police Chief, Duterte's confidant Richard Badan and 40 police officers were removed from office. In the afternoon of the same day, two special operation forces directly commanded by the Philippine President arrived in the area to take over local security.

By July, the Marcos government even made drastic changes to the city's police chief and all the directors of the police department under him. According to local observers in Davao, the Davao City Police Department's major blood exchange of this scale is the first time in the city's history.

According to the Philippines' Republic Act No. 6975 of 1990, also known as the "Internal Affairs and Local Government Act 1990", the mayors of each city shall conduct "operational supervision and control" of the national police forces within their respective jurisdictions. This also means that in areas monopolized by some political families in the Philippines, the national police are actually their legal armed forces. The Duterte family has been in power in Davao City for nearly 40 years, and this place has always been regarded as a "difficult bastion" by the Marcos government.

The Philippine Laple News Network pointed out that the Davao City Police Department suffered a major change, which not only weakened the power of the Duterte family, but also was a kind of "open mockery."

The operation against Davao Base Camp is more than that. The Philippine government has also launched an investigation into Duterte's close ally and religious leader Apollo Kiboloy on suspicion of human rights violations and arrested him in September. Apollo Kiboloy is also the founder of SMNI Radio and Television. This is an international media headquartered in Davao City. As early as January 2024, it was ordered by the Philippine National Telecommunications Commission to suspend operations indefinitely. For the Duterte family, this media has a special significance and is an important base for promoting the political thoughts of the Duterte family. Duterte himself has a column.

Tony Ravina, director of the Department of Jurisprudence and Law Philosophy of the Philippine School of Justice, believes that the series of encirclement and suppression operations launched by the Marcos camp have put Sarah in great pressure.

Sarah's "revenge"

Sarah confessed in her early years that her relationship with her father was “not that close.” Duterte grew up in Davao, a southern Philippine city torn apart by the war. Although he is the child of the governor of Davao Province, he has fought with street gangsters since he was a child. Duterte's younger brother revealed that Duterte has carried a gun with him since he was 15 years old. During his tenure as mayor of Davao and president of the Philippines, Duterte showed a strong character with a very unique personality.

However, in family life, Duterte has been repeatedly accused by Sarah's biological mother Elizabeth Zimmerman Duterte, who described Duterte as a "lustful person" and said she often suffered "mental abuse" from Duterte. Duterte himself did not deny the allegations and even joked publicly that he had three girlfriends.

The couple eventually broke off their legal relationship in 2015. Those close to Sarah said it had caused a rift in her relationship with her father. Sarah also made no secret of her upbringing: “I came from a broken family, and in my school days I often felt love and hate my father.”

Despite this, Duterte still regards Sarah as the "jewel in the palm of his hand". Many people who have close ties with the Duterte family revealed that Sarah is Duterte's favorite child. One even said Duterte was a little scared of his eldest daughter. Sarah is independent and never fears conflict with Duterte.

As a teenager, she and her mother expressed dissatisfaction with Duterte's behavior of spending the night outside, and Sarah took a cold and violent attitude towards her father. Duterte, then mayor of Davao City, once told his subordinates: "Imagine that it has been a week since she still doesn't talk to me!"

In a later interview, Duterte said helplessly: "Sarah always understands my thoughts, she can understand me, but her thoughts are unpredictable to me."

Sarah also often intends to show how different she is from her father, such as when she was Mayor of Davao City, she formed her own team and formed a league with Marcos to run for vice president.

However, as Duterte's eldest daughter, Sarah is still considered the most Duterte-like child compared to her older brother Paul and younger brother Sebastian. She is also a lawyer, has a tough style and likes to ride large motorcycles. Duterte has repeatedly described Sarah as a "strong figure" in the family.

Although there were rifts between father and daughter, they also supported each other. During Duterte's campaign for president in 2016, Sarah shaved her hair and fully supported her father's campaign. In the same year, Duterte won the election and Sarah was re-elected as mayor of Davao. In September of the same year, Sarah was pregnant with triplets and dispatched security forces in various districts. Due to excessive work, two of the triplets lost their heartbeat. At that time, Duterte attended the ASEAN summit in Vientiane, Laos. He later recalled to the media that when he received a call from his daughter losing two children, he hid in the bathroom and shed tears.

In March 2017, Sarah gave birth to the only "surviving" child and named him "Stonefish". This is a small but highly toxic fish. Sarah later explained the origin of the name: "In the underwater world, if you want to be the biggest threat, you don't have to be the largest creature. Just like in the Philippine politics, you don't have to be a man."

"At the end of the day, she is her father's daughter, with the blood of the Duterte family running on her body," said Franko, a Filipino political analyst.

In June 2024, as the struggle between Duterte and Marcos became increasingly fierce, Sarah suddenly announced in anger that she would resign from the government's education minister and vice chairman of the counter-insurgency working group and completely withdrew from the Marcos Cabinet. She said that the reason she decided to leave was that she "can't stand it anymore" and accused Marcos of not knowing how to be president at all. "If he wants to give him a score, if the full score is 10, he can only get one."

Just a week after withdrawing from the Marcos administration cabinet, Sarah announced that her two brothers and father would run for the 2025 midterm elections. By then, all seats in the House and half of the Senate will be reelected. This election will be seen as a test of strength for both camps. In October 2024, 79-year-old Duterte also decided to come back and announced that he had completed the registration election for the position of mayor of Davao City. Since then, the "Family Avengers" has taken shape.

For the Duterte family, the power battle with the Marcos family is even more of a battle of survival. At present, Duterte is still facing the threat of being arrested by the International Criminal Court, while Sarah herself faces impeachment on charges such as secret funds and threats to the president.

After the impeachment case passed the House of Representatives, it has now been handed over to the Senate. Under the Philippine Constitution, impeachment cases must be approved by two-thirds of the total seats in the Senate before they can be passed. Currently, Sarah's fate is in the hands of more than 20 senators. However, the Philippines Congress is in a four-month recession period, and the Senate will resume on June 2. Philippine Senator Escudro said the impeachment trial against Vice President Sarah will begin after President Marcos delivered his fourth State of the Union address.

Marcos has not commented on the impeachment charges, but he previously expressed his lack of support for the impeachment of Sarah, believing that the impeachment will not help improve people's livelihood and will only distract Congress. The latest statement from the Philippine Presidential Office is "no interference."

Ellen Todd Silas, co-author of the book "The Reasons for President Joseph Estrada's Defeats After the Impulse Trial", pointed out that lawmakers may be waiting for Marcos to send a clear signal on whether impeachment should be carried out.

Anthony Lawrence Borja told China Newsweek that Marcos would not directly express his intention to impeach. After Ralph Rector left the Senate to become Marcos' finance secretary, only 23 current senators are left out of the 24 members of the Senate. The constitution stipulates that two-thirds of the votes are required to convict, so Duterte's camp "only eight senators need to oppose or abstain."

"The risk of impeachment is extremely high." Ellen Toddsilas pointed out that if the impeachment fails, Sarah will not be subject to any impeachment this year, because the constitution stipulates that one impeachment lawsuit can only be filed against one official within one year. Sarah may win public opinion as a "persecutor" and compete for the 2028 presidential election; if the impeachment is successful, Marcos will face a full-scale counterattack from the Duterte family. This family that controls local armed forces and is well versed in Philippine political rules has never accepted "decent failure".